UK Monkeypox Outbreak Transmission Dynamics


In the background

(CTN News) – Throughout the ongoing Monkeypox outbreak of MPX, which began in 2022, several nations have been affected, including the United Kingdom, which is not endemic to the virus, and thus has been infected by individuals who have not recently traveled to endemic regions such as the central and western parts of Africa.

The World Health Organization (WHO) made an announcement in July of 2022 that MPX had been declared a global health emergency by the WHO.

A brief description of the study can be found below

As part of the present study, researchers examined the dynamics of MPXV transmission in the United Kingdom.

Data of case-contact (CC) pairs and potential exposure dates (EDs), linked to the cases by means of contact tracing, as well as data from UKHSA (UK health security agency) case questionnaires, was analyzed.

As a result of matching the pseudo-identifier numbers to the line lists, the SODs for the CC pairs were identified by matching the pseudo-identifier numbers to the LLs (line lists).

Between May 6 and August 1, 2022, 2,746 polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed MPX patients were included in the study.

Using interval censoring corrected (ICC) and IC right truncation corrected (ICRTC) time distribution models, the primary study outcome Monkeypox measure was the determination of the SI (serial interval) and IP (incubation period) of MPX using the interval censoring corrected (ICC) and IC right truncation corrected (ICRTC) time distribution models.

As a result of generalized additive modeling, the growth of MPX cases by the reporting dates (dates on which Monkeypox  confirmed cases were reported to the UKHSA) was evaluated.

It should be noted that, for every CC pair, an individual who has primary MPX infection was referred to as the primary case (PC), and the person who was infected by the PC was referred to as the secondary contact (SC).

As a result, the CC pairs consisted of individuals who were identified as contacts by the cases but later became cases or were already cases themselves.

In order to calculate the SOD, the most recent date of PC contact reported by an individual three weeks before SOD was considered the ED, and the date when Monkeypox symptoms manifested was considered the SOD.

In order to investigate Monkeypox probable EDs that occurred before SODs in PCs, indicative of MPXV transmission prior to the onset of symptoms, the PC SOD data were linked to the SC EDs.

In order to identify PCs and EDs for SCs, the questionnaire data records were linked to the CC pairs, which enabled the identification of PCs and EDs for each SC. To obtain the SODs, PCs were connected to the LL via PINs in order to obtain the PINs.